With the residential property transactions improving since Q1 2017, property analysts believe that the property market may have bottomed out and is clawing its way up for a gradual recovery.
Knight Frank Malaysia Sdn Bhd MD Sarkunan Subramaniam noted that from Q1 2017 to Q1 2019, the least active period was in Q2 2018 when only 70,385 transactions worth RM32.6 billion were recorded, reported The Malaysian Reserve.
It was during this period when the 14th General Election was held, which saw buyers taking a wait-and-see stance.
“Following the historic conclusion of the election, the market has since gained ground which is evident from higher levels of property market activities in Q3 2018 and Q4 2018,” he said.
“The two percent dip in transaction volume with the corresponding decline of 5.5 percent in value in Q1 2019 (Q4 2018: 53,253 residential transactions with collective value of RM19.3 billion) appears to be the norm as there are usually fewer market activities in 1Q when compared to the subsequent quarters of the year.”
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Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Sarkunan expect market activities to “pick up in the following months/quarters supported by the ongoing Home Ownership Campaign 2019, developer’s financing packages, property crowdfunding platforms, etc”.
PropertyGuru International (M) Sdn Bhd country manager Sheldon Fernandez expect the market to remain steady in the first half of 2019, with a bigger chance of recovery in the third or fourth quarter.
But while it is good to see a market rebound, Dr Carmelo Ferlito senior fellow at Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs called for a more cautious approach.
“Houses are goods linked with long-term investment projects and the market dynamics can be judged only by taking into account the medium and long runs,” he said.
“As a bad quarter does not make a disaster, a good quarter does not announce a new boom. We need to wait and see. Surely several factors have been brought to this situation.”
He noted that it is reasonable to anticipate a stabilisation of the market, with demand and supply aligning and prices play a key role in this.
“However, policy decisions will play an important role. The lesser the interference, the more the stabilisation will continue,” he said.
